2026 US Open Betting Preview | Course Success, Player Profiles & Betting Angles at Shinnecock Hills

It is time for another major as we roll into Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, New York, for the 126th US Open. This week will provide one of the purest tests in golf as the US Open heads to a course on its rotation that is situated on a large and exposed piece of land, bringing all of the elements into play. The numbers speak for themselves here. Historically, Shinnecock has tested every strand of a golfer's game, physically and mentally, and this week will be no different.

The Course

Shinnecock's defence comes from wind, strategic angles, uneven lies, difficult bunker complexes, and large but challenging green structures that play small due to the contours and shapes throughout them. Combine all of these and it paints a really good picture of the kind of strategic test players will face this week. Holes will play differently from day to day, players will need to be creative with yardages, ball shape, and flight, and they will need to plot their way around the course.

• Course: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
• Location: Southampton, New York
• Architect: William Flynn
• Yardage: 7,440 yards
• Par: 70
• Greens: Poa annua/Bentgrass blend
• Fairways: Bentgrass
• US Open Host: 1896, 1986, 1995, 2004, 2018, 2026
• 2018 Champion: Brooks Koepka

The course sits on exposed sandy terrain near the Atlantic Ocean and Peconic Bay. There are very few trees, meaning players are constantly exposed to changing wind directions. The routing was specifically designed so players face different wind angles throughout the round. When the wind really comes out to play, club selection becomes extremely difficult and approach shots struggle to hold greens, making par on any hole a good score.

One difference from the 2018 US Open, where Brooks Koepka won, is the fairway width. Fairways were narrowed prior to that event, but that won't be the case this time, with fairway mowing lines being altered slightly from 2018 to extend closer to the bunkers, bringing them more into play and increasing rollout. Despite the extra width, players will still need to be precise to have the right angles in.

Shinnecock Hills has so many notable holes; here are a few of the toughest:

7th Hole – Par 3 (Redan)

Redan is probably the most famous hole on the course. The green slopes dramatically from front-right to back-left and is heavily influenced by wind. Historically, it is one of the toughest Redan-style holes in the world. Redan refers to the shaping and orientation of the green, typically one that slopes boldly from right to left or vice versa.

11th Hole – Par 3 (Hill Head)

Hill Head is only around 155 yards, but plays significantly uphill and into the wind, which will change that number each round. Many players regard it as one of the hardest short par 3s in major championship golf.

14th Hole – Par 4 (Thom's Elbow)

The longest par 4 on the property and a true championship hole where players often hit driver into a long iron or hybrid on their approach into a difficult green complex. It is going to be an absolute brute all week.

16th Hole – Par 5 (Pond)

In low-scoring events, par 5s often provide a scoring outlet, but Pond is a genuine three-shot hole and far from an easy challenge. With strategic bunkering around approach and landing zones, it is going to test even the strongest par 5 players on tour.

The Field

• Field: 156 Players
• Cut: Top 60 + Ties
• FedExCup: 750 Points (Winner)
• Purse: $22,500,000

Weather

• No advantage
• Potential for delay or stoppage

Course Success

How do you genuinely model a course like Shinnecock Hills, a course which historically has broken the world's best while they were playing at the top of their game? Success here is simply to survive. This week will bring the grinders into play, and that is what makes the US Open such a fun test every year.

The key stats for me this week are:

• SG: Approach
• SG: Around The Green
• SG: Off The Tee
• Driving Accuracy
• Bogey Avoidance

Ball striking is at a complete premium. Players will miss greens constantly and will need to rely heavily on their short games to make pars. Total driving still has a large level of importance. Guys with distance and guys who can keep hitting their spots off the tee will set themselves up strongly for success.

Player Profiles

Chris Gotterup

Odds: 48, 47/1, +4700

I've been talking about this spot for months, it feels like. Ever since The Masters, I have been looking forward to Gotterup in the US Open and The Open Championship as I feel so strongly about how his game sets up for the playing conditions. Driving distance is going to be an advantage; it is just a matter of whether he can keep it clean enough off the tee to set himself up. His shot shaping and creativity are what will put him above a lot of players this week. He can hit every shot, and his record in wind-affected events is strong, with a win at the Scottish Open and a T3 at The Open Championship.

Kurt Kitayama

Odds: 95, 94/1, +9400

Quietly putting together a really strong form line with top 25s in each of his last five events going into this. His driving ability is an advantage for him, and his recent form comes off the back of strong numbers off the tee. Outside of that, his putter seems to be finding form with +3 strokes gained on the greens at both the PGA Championship and the Memorial, both of which were played in tough conditions. With the profile of some of the US Open winners and those who have had success, Kitayama is someone who absolutely fits that profile and has the game to contend here this week.

Collin Morikawa

Odds: 65, 64/1, +6400

This, for me, is an easy play at this price because I believe he is back to being fully healthy. Now, that could be very wrong, but I saw enough at the RBC Canadian Open last week to tell me otherwise. His media work, pointing out how motivated he was to win a national open having never won one before, is something I loved. He wasn't just using last week as a chance to prep for the US Open, he wanted to win. The most important thing is that his driving accuracy and ball striking are elite, two things that are going to be crucial this week.

Hideki Matsuyama

Odds: 100, 99/1, +9900

For Hideki and Cam Smith, I will say that I am playing these at the price point and hoping that the difficult conditions bring the field into play because, for Hideki, his approach play and around-the-green game are two things that separate him from a lot of the field. Anyone with a strong record at Augusta is going to be someone you look at favourably on a course that plays as difficult as this. His recent PGA Championship numbers stood out, with +5 strokes gained around the green and putting. Let's pray the driver holds on!

Cam Smith

Odds: 100, 99/1, +9900

Same story as Hideki, we need the driver to survive because the rest of the game is in great shape. Cam has always been elite around and on the greens, and ever since he made the coaching change, his form on LIV has improved, which isn't saying a lot. He was well and truly in the thick of it on Sunday at the PGA Championship, and he lost almost five strokes off the tee. We know he can play on these links-style, windy courses, and he is slowly heading back towards the old Cam Smith that we used to love betting during majors. Let's pray the driver holds on!