2026 RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview | Course Success, Player Profiles & Betting Angles at TPC Toronto

The Course

With just a week to go before the US Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, the PGA Tour is off for its one and only stop north of the border for the RBC Canadian Open. For the second year running, TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley will host the event, making it the 38th different venue to host the Canadian Open.

The North Course, located in Caledon, Ontario, was originally a wide and playable parkland layout, but the recent renovation undertaken by Ian Andrew transformed it into a more demanding test. The course was lengthened, fairways were tightened in landing areas, bunkering was repositioned, and the green complexes were made much more demanding. The renovation was undertaken with hosting the RBC Canadian Open in mind.

TPC Toronto is one of the more gettable venues on Tour, with last year's event, won by Ryan Fox, playing close to 1.5 strokes under par. With only two Par 5s and a number of long Par 4s, TPC Toronto is by no means a walk in the park, but this does play like a true Tee-To-Green course, with both Greens in Regulation and Scrambling % sitting above the PGA Tour average. Players will see different approach challenges, with shots from 50-100, 100-150, and 200-250 yards playing above the PGA Tour average, highlighting the profile of players who can hit both long and short irons well.

The Field

• Field: 147 Players
• Cut: Top 65 + Ties
• FedExCup: 500 Points (Winner)
• Purse: $9,800,000

Notable Players: Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland

Course Success

With only one previous PGA Tour event at TPC Toronto and a tough weather forecast currently in front of us, my approach will be fairly straightforward. The key stats for me this week are:

• SG: Off The Tee
• SG: Tee-To-Green
• SG: Approach
• Par 5 Scoring
• Approach 200+

Roughly 25% of approach shots were from 200-250 yards last year. I want some aspect of my approach to look into that, but I am really just looking for the longer and better drivers of the golf ball this week and the guys who are playing really strongly tee-to-green. We don't have enough course history for me to really channel into, so I am going to look at recent form and find guys who are trending up and tick a lot of the above boxes.

Player Profiles

Brooks Koepka

Odds: 42, 41/1, +4100

For how I modelled this week, Brooks is my top-ranked player going in, and that is probably no surprise considering I didn't have any putting metrics weighted. To put it bluntly, if it wasn't for his putter, he would have won this year already and it is only a matter of time before he manages to work it out on the greens.

Key Stats:

• SG: T2G — 4th
• SG: Approach — 7th
• SG: Par 5 — 1st
• Approach 200-250 — 8th

Michael Brennan

Odds: 65, 64/1, +6400

One aspect of my betting card I was looking for this week was to have someone who was absolutely elite off the tee and has shown some signs elsewhere in his game, and that is Michael Brennan. With only two Par 5s, I did want to have someone with supreme length, and Brennan is someone who has flashed all the aspects needed to be a winner, but never all together. TPC Toronto presents a great opportunity for him to do that.

Key Stats:

• SG: OTT — 1st
• SG: T2G — 27th
• Eagle % — 10th

Alex Fitzpatrick

Odds: 46, 45/1, +4500

At this point, I may as well admit I have become an Alex Fitz fan boy. I profiled him last week for the Memorial, and after an electric final round, he finished with a T6 to give him his third top ten in a Signature Event since gaining his PGA Tour card. There are so many aspects of his game to love for this course, and his price jump from last week to this week is completely justified. I am still in at this price. He will win again on Tour this year.

Key Stats:

• Birdie or Better % — 4th
• SG: T2G — 2nd
• SG: Approach — 2nd
• SG: Ball Striking — 1st
• SG: Total — 7th
• Good Drive % — 3rd
• Total Driving — 1st

Doug Ghim

Odds: 120, 119/1, +11900

The last month has been solid for Doug, finishing T31 or better since the Houston Open. Another guy who fits exactly what I am looking for in terms of value and course fit. His ball striking is trending in the right direction and he is super accurate off the tee. He will be someone I play for Top Finishes.

Jackson Suber

Odds: 130, 129/1, +12900

Recent form is decent. The last round of the Charles Schwab Challenge was a disaster, but he is a guy whose approach and tee-to-green game are all coming together and trending in the right direction. Easy dabble at this price with the course fit.

Neal Shipley

Odds: 360, 359/1, +35900

This one is a hard one to get excited about, but Shipley is a guy coming off a massive day to qualify for the US Open and, quite simply, is someone who eats off the tee. The rest of his game on the PGA Tour has been tough to watch, but taking a shot at this price that the longest day kick-starts something for him.