2026 PGA Championship Betting Preview: Course Success, Player Profiles & Betting Angles at Aronimink

After being at the familiar and not so friendly confines of Quail Hollow last week, we find ourselves at a course where we are probably at the other end of the scale in terms of comfort in knowing what course success looks like. With only three PGA Tour events being held at Aronimink Golf Club previously, and just the one after the Gil Hanse redesign, this week does present a really interesting test from a betting perspective. Simply put, the betting markets will be the most subjective we see for a Major Championship for a while. How someone views success here is going to be different to the next.

With all that said, for me this week at Aronimink, with the increase in shorter approach shots, trickier greens and bunker arrangements that present some questions off the tee, I want my focus to be around the approach and putting aspects over what we see off the tee. With limited course history present, it does give us a really good opportunity to take some chances on guys at bigger prices who have good form lines coming in.

Key stats

These are the key stats for me this week:

• SG: Total (Recent Rounds)
• Good Drive %
• SG: Approach
• Approach 100-150
• SG: Putting
• 3 Putt Avoidance %

Player Profiles

Collin Morikawa

Odds: 50, 49/1, +4900

First up is a guy who I spoke about during The Masters and said with the price he was in the betting market, you had to either bet him or take him on in the pairings if you felt that his back injury was truly limiting. He was limited at Augusta and still finished T7, and the next week at Harbour Town he finished T4. He is back to being healthy, and this is just a great price point to get involved in for a guy who should be in the top betting group in my opinion.

We know putting will be what holds him back, but to me the approach numbers are enough to get me in here, and I think he showed at Augusta that he can put together a week with the flat stick on complex green structures. With the 100-150 approach range coming into play more here, this is how Morikawa ranks over the last 6 months:

100-150 Approach Proximity

• Inside 5 ft — 5th
• Inside 10 ft — 2nd
• Inside 15 ft — 7th

Essentially, this season he is inside 15 feet on 40% of his approach shots in this range. The complexity of these large green surfaces is going to highlight the importance of hitting your spots—Collin does this.

Taking a look at recent form, even with the Cadillac Championship performance where he finished T62 and lost strokes putting, off the tee, and was level on approach, in his last 16 rounds he still ranks:

• SG: Total — 8th
• SG: App — 7th
• SG: Putting — 47th
• 3 Putt Avoidance % — 22nd

Aronimink presents a really strong chance for Morikawa to add another Major Championship to his name. I am excited to see what he can do here.

Matt McCarty

Odds: 190, 189/1, +18900

If we want to look at form lines, why not take someone who has been trending up since The Masters and just broke a PGA Tour putting record at Quail Hollow? Matt McCarty played one of the best rounds of golf you will likely see on Thursday at Quail and has gone T12, T9, T10 since his debut Masters where he was T24. At this price point, McCarty is great value and ticks a number of boxes here. Over the last 16 rounds he ranks:

• SG: Total — 11th
• SG: Putting — 7th
• SG: Approach — 24th
• Good Drive % — 21st

Outside of his recent form lines, this season McCarty ranks 5th in 3 Putt Avoidance % and is inside 15 feet on 43% of approach shots from the 100-150 range. Plenty to like on a guy who has seen his approach numbers trending in the right direction for the last few months now. Does he have enough game to win a Major Championship though?

Russell Henley

Odds: 80, 79/1, +7900

This is what I love about this PGA Championship and how a neutral venue has just created value for us in the betting markets. For the most part, I really never find myself dipping my toe into Henley outrights, but this price here I can't ignore and have to bet.

The biggest thing for me with Henley is his Major Championship form, coming off a T3 at Augusta where he gained almost 3 strokes on approach and has 4 top 10 finishes in his last 6 starts in majors prior to this year. There isn't a part of his game which makes you look at him like you look at Rory or Scottie, but there is also no part of his game where you can say that is what will hold him back. Since 2023 he has one finish outside of the top 25 in a major where he makes the cut.

In my opinion, the players around him in the betting market have question marks in some aspect of their game, with no course history to bank on. How can we be sure that a really well-rounded, steady game like Henley's isn't what works here at Aronimink?

DFS Players

While DFS isn't as accessible for us here in Australia as it is in the States, it is still something I look at each week and think there is a real case to taking some shots here this week with some value guys who make a strong case to round out your lineup.

Keegan Bradley

Price: 7400

In his last 16 rounds he is 3rd in 3 Putt Avoidance % and 16th in SG: Putting. His form line going into The Masters was horrific and has been okay since, with two top 20s in the three events post-Augusta where he was T21. He is one of the few people in the field this week who can say he has good course history.

Jacob Bridgeman

Price: 7600

After his win at The Genesis early in the season, I'd have said his profile was so well set up for this course. His form line and approach play fell away massively, but his putter is what keeps him relevant here. Over his last 16 rounds, 38% of approach shots from the 100-150 yards range end up inside 15 feet. Has every chance to be a show this week.

Andrew Putnam

Price: 5400

If you want to truly dive into the muck at this price section, Putnam was T16 here in 2018 at the BMW, and in his last 16 rounds is 13th in SG: Approach and 15th in SG: Putting. In this range we are starting to get to Michael Block territory. Putnam is one of the best of an awful bunch.