2026 Open Championship Preview | Royal Birkdale Storylines

The Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale, and it arrives with plenty of talking points—a shock missed cut from the world number one, firm and fast conditions we're not used to at an Open, a redesigned golf course, and a fairytale storyline brewing just down the road.

Scottie Scheffler

For the first time since the FedEx St. Jude Championship in 2022, Scottie Scheffler has missed a cut, ending his streak at 78 consecutive made cuts on the PGA Tour. While this does include a large number of no-cut Signature Events, this past week was still a bit of a staggering sight to see. There have been some really slow starts for Scottie this season, but this is one he couldn't come back from. In the grand scheme of things, is one missed cut that concerning? Absolutely not. But as a result, we are now seeing a big shift in the betting markets, with Scottie the biggest price he has been to win any single event in the last three seasons. In some places, McIlroy is now the favourite this week, and I think I agree with that at this point.

I do think Scottie is becoming an interesting talking point. Someone who won 14 times on the PGA Tour over the last two seasons sits at just one win this year, and we are looking at the prospect of him walking away from the season without adding a major to his trophy cabinet. Heading into this season, that would've been unfathomable to think about. We've seen the frustration build this season, something we haven't seen from him over the last few years, and this is all despite the fact he has done almost everything but win consistently. Numbers-wise, to even have a conversation about someone having a season like this is crazy, but that demonstrates just how dominant Scottie has been over the last few years. I do wonder if we continue to see a shift in the betting markets after this week if we don't see the normal Scottie.

Weather Conditions

Right now, one of the most important talking points has to be the weather and playing conditions. We are looking at a brown and fast golf course with a couple of warm days to start the week. This is not what we are used to with The Open Championship. We will still get some windy conditions, but we are not getting the usual wet, miserable scenes that we're used to. How does that change things for players? Which players does that bring into play? Maverick McNealy posted a video of himself bouncing a golf ball on a fairway, making it almost look like he was bouncing a basketball. Michael Kim posted that he hit his 4-iron almost 300 yards on the run-out with some favourable wind conditions. How does that change how we profile this week as bettors?

One key question I think most people will ask is, will they let the course go or will they step in and take some of the sting out of it? It feels like at most major championships of late, we've asked ourselves this question and seemingly it's always the same answer, and it annoys the vast majority of people, myself included. If we continue to get hot weather in the UK and the course stays firm and fast, with some increased wind, how difficult do the first two days look at Birkdale? I hope we get to find out. There are minor showers forecast for the weekend at this stage, which will naturally take some of the sting out of the course, but making it to the weekend first to see that will be a tall task for a lot of players this week.

Course Changes

Forget what you saw in 2017. Not only are we facing different weather conditions, but Birkdale has also gone through a decent redesign since then. In 2021, the club turned to Tom Mackenzie and Martin Ebert to lead the changes to Royal Birkdale ahead of hosting this Open Championship. The result is a more nuanced approach to strategy, penalty and recovery. Ebert and Mackenzie said that history was important to the project, but it wasn't a restoration, and the changes made were designed to develop the course with the modern game in mind.

Here are the changes:

• Redesign of the short par-4 5th.
• Shortened and rebuilt the par-3 7th.
• Removal of the old par-5 14th hole.
• New par-5 14th hole, largely in the place of the previous par-5 15th.
• New par-3 15th hole that is a different makeup from the previous par 3s here.
• Removal of 14 bunkers, with the remaining bunkers rebuilt more dramatically into the dunes.

Tommy Fleetwood

Born just down the road from this week's venue, is there a more magical storyline than Tommy Fleetwood winning his first major championship here? Since missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Tommy has been playing well, with a T14 at the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago before another good week in Scotland. History says that playing well in the Scottish Open translates to playing well at The Open, and if we are going to get a different style of links golf than usual this week, a guy like Fleetwood, who knows this area better than probably anyone else in the field, is going to have a real advantage over the international players. Tommy deserves to become a major champion.

Major Letdown

Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark and Aaron Rai are our three major winners from this year. Which means one or all of Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Ludvig Åberg, Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood won't win a major this season. For Cameron Young and Matt Fitzpatrick, with how well they have played this year, it seems crazy that neither has won a major. For Ludvig, it has almost been a lost season. I'm not saying he won't get there, but like most people, I thought it would have happened by now. Collin and Tommy have both had stretches good enough to warrant being in this conversation, and I think if they leave here without the Claret Jug, they'll be feeling the same way as everyone else.