2026 Masters Preview | Trends, Player Profiles, Conditions, Predictions

The Course

Augusta isn't a course that looks overly intimidating, with wide fairways and minimal rough and a layout that the players know with repeat and similar pin placements. How the course plays, is the complete opposite, with Augusta being all about precision, discipline and patience. If you get out of position, Augusta will punish you quickly.

The biggest defence of Augusta is the greens. Undulating, lightning fast and simply unforgiving. You can hit what looks like a perfect approach and still find yourself 40 feet away with a putt that feels almost impossible to lag close. It places a huge emphasis on approach play, but even more so on leaving the ball in the right spots. Being on the wrong tier is as good as a missed green.

Augusta will always be a second shot golf course, driving still plays a key role like in any golf course but it's not everything. Angles into these greens are crucial, and being on the correct side of the fairway can make a massive difference. Players who can shape the ball both ways and control their trajectory tend to thrive here.

The Par 5's are where you have to make your score. Score on the Par 5's and survive the rest of the course, it's as simple as that. Amen Corner is a huge part of that survival. Holes 11, 12 and 13 can flip a leaderboard in a matter of minutes. We've seen it time and time again. One loose swing, one gust of wind, and everything can change. It's not just about making birdies here, it's about surviving. Just ask Jordan Speith!

Conditions

Weather always has a say at Augusta, and when the wind picks up, it becomes a completely different beast. It's going to be fast, it's going to be firm and it does look like it is going to be a low scoring event, with a number of players already speaking on just how tough it will get on the weekend.

Let the fun begin.

Experience

The most obvious statement in the golfing world is that experience matters at Augusta—but how much does it matter? In the past decade, eight winners had previously recorded a top-10 finish and had played Augusta on three or more occasions. Only three winners have claimed the Masters on their first trip up Magnolia Lane, with Frank Urban Zoeller Jr. the last to do so at the 1979 Masters.The path to success here is clear: experience, contend, win.

Putting

Brooks Koepka once said you could start an amateur golfer on the green at Augusta and a pro would still win from the tee. While that might be a stretch, it highlights just how difficult professionals find the Bentgrass greens at Augusta.The average strokes gained putting by a Masters winner over the past five years is significantly lower than at other majors and the PGA Tour average. This brings poorer putters into play, placing greater emphasis on pure ball striking and proximity to the hole.

Strokes Gained

Compared to other majors and the PGA Tour average, Strokes Gained: Approach and Around the Green have the most impact at the Masters.Over the past decade, eight winners entered the tournament averaging 1.7 or more in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. Using this metric alone eliminates a large portion of the betting market and really highlights how few players are genuinely capable of winning a Green Jacket.

Driving

Bryson DeChambeau calling Augusta a par 67 was something he later admitted was disrespectful—and rightly so. In the past five years, accurate drivers have tended to outperform pure power hitters. Despite the higher number of long iron shots required compared to a typical PGA Tour event—and the fact that the par 5s are the main scoring opportunities—it's worth being cautious about backing pure bombers. Distance is just one part of the Augusta puzzle.

Analysing Recent Augusta Failure

One of the trends I saw was that the Masters winner rarely misses the cut the year before they win. While on the surface it seems fairly straightforward, as missing the cut is never good, if we unpack it, does missing the cut mean success the following year is out of the question?Patrick Reed achieved this after winning his Green Jacket in 2018, having missed the cut the year before.

If we want to look deeper and expand on what success looks like at Augusta, in the last five years here are some results for key players:

Justin Rose - 2nd 2025 (MC 2024)
Bryson DeChambeau - 6th 2024 (MC 2023)
Sungjae Im - 5th 2025 (MC 2024)
Brooks Koepka - 2nd 2023 (MC 2022)
Rory McIlroy - 2nd 2022 (MC 2021)
Jordan Spieth - 4th 2023 (MC 2022)
Cameron Young - 7th 2023 (MC 2022)

A top 10 at Augusta should be viewed as success. With multiple top 10 results from players who missed the cut the year before across most of the years covered, I am happy to take my chances on some players who missed the cut last year, mainly because of how I profile two players:

Cameron Young

When we look at him heading to Augusta this year compared to last, we are looking at a completely different player. Young's results leading into the Masters last year were a complete disaster, missing the cut in half of the ten events he played prior, including four cuts in five weeks. He lost strokes on approach in eight of those tournaments and was a completely different player to what we are seeing this year.

Fast forward 12 months and he makes the trip up Magnolia Lane with a win at The Players, T3 at the Arnold Palmer, and a T7 at The Genesis. On top of that, he has the following rankings in key stats that set you up for success at Augusta:

SG: Tee To Green - 9th
SG: Off The Tee - 3rd
Proximity To Hole - 3rd

We know that Young isn't a top-tier putter, but his putting numbers at Augusta in 2023 and 2024 show that he can handle these bentgrass greens and has the tools needed to navigate Augusta.

Nicolai Højgaard

Nicolai Højgaard has all the attributes to be a major winner and, similar to Young, had a completely brutal 2025 Masters preparation, missing three cuts in a row leading into the Masters while losing strokes putting, on approach, and around the greens. It was the worst possible preparation you could have.

Fast forward 12 months, he has three top 10s and is coming off a second at the Houston Open. More importantly, he has gained strokes on approach and putting in his last eight starts and truly looks like the player we saw in flashes last year. His metrics going into the Masters have improved:

SG: Tee To Green - 15th
SG: Approach - 12th

With only two appearances at Augusta, it may be a taller task, but I will take a flyer on a player who ranks inside the top 30 in Strokes Gained Total, Approach, Tee to Green, and Putting.

Augusta Rookies + Comp Courses

Is this the year we finally see a first timer don the Green Jacket again? You could make an arguement that this year has some of the strongest Masters rookies in a long time. There are three clear standouts in the class: Jacob Bridgeman, Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin.

Bridgeman, who had his breakthrough PGA Tour win at The Genesis played at Riviera CC, which is considered a comp course for Augusta. Bridgeman has been the best player on the PGA Tour this season and rightly finds himself ranked number one in the FedEx Cup Standings. He ranks 2nd in SG Total and 1st in SG Putting on the PGA Tour this season.

Gotterup, who heads to Augusta for the first time with four PGA Tour wins under his belt somehow, has two wins and five top 25's this season already. He ranks 8th in SG Tee-To-Green and 6th in Par 5 Scoring on the PGA Tour this season.Griffin, like Gotterup, strangely finds himself heading to Augusta as a rookie after posting three wins last season. While he is yet to fire this season, this is a man who finished 5th in SG Total last year on the PGA Tour and has a resume unlike most Augusta rookies.

How do we assess their fit for Augusta without any course history? By using Torrey Pines South, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Riviera CC, Kapalua, Quail Hollow and Memorial Park as comp courses for Augusta, here are some key Strokes Gained rankings over the past 16 rounds played:

Bridgeman - 11th for Approach, 4th for Putting
Gotterup - 8th for Off The Tee, 13th for Tee To Green, 15th for Ball Striking
Griffin - 16th for Total, 12th for Around The Green/Putting Combined

While you can't replicate Augusta, many of these comp courses have those undulating greens which require your attention on every single putt. Three-putting at Augusta will happen, but how often is the difference between playing the weekend and not. If we look at 3-Putt Avoidance (25+ feet) and Bogey Avoidance, here is how they rank:

Bridgeman - 3rd (3-Putt), 16th (Bogey Avoidance)
Gotterup - 12th (3-Putt), 4th (Bogey Avoidance)
Griffin - 21st (3-Putt), 30th (Bogey Avoidance)

What is another thing we know about success at Augusta? You need to do your scoring on the Par 5's and survive the rest of the course. Using the same comp course metrics, here is how all three rank in Par 5 scoring average:

Bridgeman - 27th
Gotterup - 24th
Griffin - 8th

Even by looking at the PGA Tour performances this year, all three rank favourably in Par 5 scoring average:

Bridgeman - 21st
Gotterup - 6th
Griffin - 17th

At the end of the day, nothing will trump experience at Augusta, but you can't push aside this rookie class easily. With question marks around Rory, Scottie, Morikawa and Aberg, this does look like one of the most wide open Masters that we have had for some time, and I can see a rookie being in contention late on Sunday. All three here players have success on Sunday and success on truly difficult courses. Let's see how they handle the Augusta challenge and let's have a week.